Egypt Under Suleiman.... a quick Detour by Jamil Shawwa

Internally:

A transition of power that could result in a Turkish/French style political system, with the prime minster- the majority in the parliament- and the president as the executive authority.

Externally:

Continuation of Egypt’s role in leading the Arab countries in the peace process with the State of Israel and the efforts to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.  The peace with Israel is as solid as the pyramids.

Continuation of Egypt’s role as a moderate country with the continuation of the special relations with the United States. I heard the other day a wannabe by the name of Tamim Barghouti- identified himself as a Palestinian poet in Al-Jazeera- who claimed that and I quote “America lost Egypt forever” end of Quote. I think that guy is lost himself, he does not know what he is talking about and he better off just focusing on growing up, read a book, two, or something.

The democratic reforms will extend to other Arab countries and will affect every single Arab country one way or the other.

Basically, Egypt is on the right track and the talk is now the future and not the past; Mubarak is the past.

Mubarak’s Last Hurrah… By Jamil Shawwa

I wrote before on “Arab American Wire” on 01/03/2011 “Why Egypt Will Not Revolt” which is yet to be seen if wrong or right- the measure whether it is true or not will be if the people directly will force the ruler out of power. I still think that president Mubarak is in his way out but not in the style of the Tunisian president, running away. Mubarak will not run away but will transition to his vice president who might form a national unity government or attract opposition figures in the government. According to news reports, ElBaradei, the Egyptian international figure who headed the IAEA might also have a role, some even said he might form the national unity government under “president Suleiman” The bottom line is that Mubarak is a thick skin but not an idiot, he very cleverly have built a momentum to show the chaos, and he is playing the fear factor, he is scaring the Egyptians of what might happen if he disappears all of a sudden; the looters and the outlaws and some say the bullies of his regime, his own peoples, in the streets. He ordered the police to run away, he ordered guards and police at prisons to just abandon posts; he intentionally let thousands of convicted felons and criminals to breakout. Mubarak is scaring the Egyptians, he is playing it smart- according to his way of thinking- and some might say playing it harsh, but he is playing the game and he is telling the Egyptians that it is ok, fine, I’m leaving but not so soon and only on my own terms. Mubarak hold grudges, no doubt about it. This is Mubarak and this is how he has been all along. He knows his people; he knows that the Egyptians used to say” It is better to be called a coward rather than to be called May Rest in Peace” meaning, live and not die for any cause or nothing is worth dying for. But the Egyptians are breaking away slowly form that stigma and they are revolting. Mubarak -years ago- would not have cared about all this and would not have blinked but not anymore, the world has changed 360 degree since the time he took power in 1981 after the assassination of President Sadat. The Soviet Union just collapsed in days, Eastern Europe disappeared, and the bills of freedom are ringing all over the world. Smart communications as I like to call them are everywhere, it is now Mubarak vs. Facebook, and Mubarak vs. Twitter and Mubarak Vs. the internet, and you have guessed it, they, the media the smart ones, are winning. Mubarak is leaving, he is gone already, but the actual departure will not be a coward one, again, according to how he thinks, it is not his style and probably there is no rush for him to be kicked out or for the US to demand it without due diligence, so and accordingly, he wants at least to leave like King Farouk left in 05/26/1952, when the Egyptian military saluted him while he was dressed as the sea admiral on board of his yacht “El Mahrousa” the translation, “the protected” a term which is the Egyptians usually refers to their country.

*"The Palestinian Papers"...A View from Jamil Shawwa

The leaked, it is so fashionable now to have things leaked, about the alleged “Palestinian Papers” in regard to Jerusalem and the refugees looks like that leak in the 1990s about a proposed Golan Heights deal, “The Rabin document” which states a preparation from the side of the State of Israel to withdraw from the Golan in exchange for full relations with Syria. First, again, Syria is nothing to worry about, it will oblige as needed as it did when the order came to withdraw from Lebanon in 2005. As for the Palestinians, you have to worry about few things; lack of credibility, lack of representation, lack of transparency, and of course the ultimate Palestinian stigma; cowardness. The issues of Jerusalem and the Palestinian refugees are so simple, and in my mind, they are resolved and they just need Palestinian politicians who are elected properly or bold enough to spell them out. All these leaks are just test balloons to prepare people mentally to things that might be coming their way. Usually such things happen and in that magnitude in societies where hypocrisy is paramount and where people like to fool themselves and where the defeat is called "Nakba" and "Naksa", and accordingly, there is one place so far on earth that fits that criteria; The West Bank and the Gaza Strip. I saw excerpts from that Al-Jazeera in English report that talked about that deal from the Palestinians negotiators. See, here is another problem, Saeb Erekat and Yaser Abed Raboh and others are no body, they have as most of the Palestinian politicians, no credibility and no substance and no respect. You listen to them, of course this includes Hamas, and one thing comes to mind, forgive my Korean, the bathroom. The solution is easy, go and talk to the people in the West Bank and Gaza, Jerusalem is an open city, no need to dismantle any settlements anywhere, which is administered by the State of Israel and the State of Palestine, each within and with modifications around the 1967 line. If settlements fall within the State of Palestine, then they are residents of the state and it applies to any Arab population that falls within the State of Israel. The refugees issue is resolved, No Return, it does actually defies logic, unless they go back to lands in The West Bank or the Gaza Strip. If the Palestinians have a bold leader that for once would level with them and spell it and talk about it with the courage and the humility that it requires, the Palestinians will no longer continue to feel the victims that they are not, will not continue to cry and weep and will stop cursing everything and every body. See, the Palestinians are so lucky right now, the world including the State of Israel want to give them a state in the West Bank and The Gaza Strip, although they are the most expert in trying to tell the world not to give them a state. Two idiots run the show in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, the PLO and Hamas. Can you imagine any nation on earth as unlucky as the Palestinians, their history by large, is a history of idiots running their politics.

* Search here under Israel and Palestine for more related articles.

*Divorce Socrates Wife, Part III....by Jamil Shawwa

He deteriorates anytime he is around her.

He feels that he loses part of his humanity anytime she opens her mouth.

She is not evil but evil would be scared of her.

The best communication they have together is when they do not talk to each other; silence with her is heaven. Once she talks, it is hell on earth.

She is selfish, obnoxious, and rude, with an inferiority complex to compliment them. No tact, no finesse, no class and she likes herself that way, or maybe she thinks that being all the above protects from the outside world, gives her some shield or cover so people cannot see the scared human that she is.

He is not much better, probably, he is not perfect, far away from perfection for sure, he does not want an equal in selfishness, he does not want an equal in other things that he despises, he wants something different, but he is lazy.

She is completely wrong for him and he is completely wrong for her.

What brought them together is the worst human trend, just the worst; laziness, settling for the easiest, accepting the available at a moment of despair, and a moment of weakness, not following the guts, not following that inner radar that never fails, not following that big No that came looming across his eyes as soon as that female showed him the real person she was and it was in the first two days of their meeting. See, she did not hide it, she did not pretend to be someone else; it was not her fault; it was his. And it was not too late; it is never too late to correct the wrong, to drop the bad, to open a new page, a new window, a new door. He did not do it then, he did not see it, he thought it was something normal, a regular human trend. He was blind, it takes so long for this human to realize his surroundings, maybe laziness blinds him, or maybe he thinks that the universe revolves around him.

It is never too late, even for that lazy person. To him, nothing equals the companionship and the courtship of a woman.

*Human observations, for entertainment purposes only. Type Divorce in the search tab on Arab American Wire to read the first two parts.

*Lingerie...Part II, The Sequel...by Jamil Shawwa

No candlelight; they are not into candles, roses, or flowers. They are into warm setting, cozy surroundings complimented by the natural heat of the body traction. They are together, she is staring and he pretends as if nothing has happened, he is playing it cool, but in fact, she is the cool one. Her eyes are so comforting that he cannot look at them. They are so confident that he melts from just passing by her sight. She is a dangerous creature; she can contain him in a second. He thinks that he controls the action but she in fact is the predator and he is the prey, she never makes him feel it, he thinks that he scored, but he did not, he made love. Lingerie is no longer anywhere to be found, they are something from the past, no one thinks of them any more, and no one wants to leave the setting to search for them; maybe they vanished, in their minds at that moment. He must leave the location, temporarily, for a cigarette, the idiot, how could he leave such a treasure for just a cigarette. No drinks around, just two small bottles of mineral water. It was not a battle but a symphony, she calmed him down, no rush she said, he looked baffled after these words, as if she had caught him in the act. Maybe he did not expect her to be so direct or so in control. Basically he is there managing something, but she is the conductor. He was the instrument, but she was the gatekeeper, the bed of roses and a gate it was, well done, well trimmed and so smooth that a mountain of butter could melt on it, and well positioned as every part of her landscape. Everything was well put and prepared, it is not a beauty per say, but everything was just right. It was not a job that they had to finish, it was not a mission that they had to accomplish, and it was not a process that they had to complete. It was a discovery, an exploration; every location needed to be touched on, and every hill and river needed to be climbed and crossed, but the sailing and the climbing were simultaneously, natural and not constructed. The river is hugging the sailor and both are indulged. In the shower, the water was dancing and singing, and all they did was to move to its tunes, and to comply with its rhythms. Nothing more, just the water under that little shower telling a story that never ends.

 

* For entertainment purposes only.

Breathe Tunisia Breathe….by Jamil Shawwa…

The winds of change and freedom are blowing all over the Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Iraq was the first and now Tunisia with a popular uprising that within less than a month forced the brutal dictator "Bin Ali" to flee the country. Few demonstrations ended a rule of almost quarter of a century. Nothing stopped the people; the army could not shoot at the unarmed, the poor, the hungry, the suppressed and the oppressed. The voices of the hungry in the streets of Tunisia was as thunder that no military apparatus could have stopped, and even if they could, they would have not. On a Facebook post dated 01/10/2011, just four days shy from Bin Ali’s departure, I wrote the following-In the mid 1980s the ailing late Tunisian president Bourgeba appointed Bin Ali to be minister of interior, few months later in a coup d'état, Bin Ali removed the historic yet senile leader and appointed himself president. It is time now for Tunisia to remove Bin Ali, hold elections and appoint a new president. North Africa is crying for reforms, and it is just the beginning of historic reforms in the Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa. It is time for those corrupt dictators to retire- and to my surprise, the dismissal of the dictator came much sooner than I expected. I knew that he is gone, but not that fast. Tunisia is starting to breathe fresh air that it never had before, it kicked out a manipulative dictator. The rest of the Arab countries are watching, and learning and reading the story of courage to apply it and copy it to their own versions of Bin Ali. The Arab kings, presidents, princes and oppressive commanders are now scared, contemplating in their palaces of fear about their next step or planning an exile, they are hoping to escape and be as lucky as Bin Ali and run rather than be put on trial- if they are that lucky- and be exposed on their crimes against their people. The hungry have spoken, the oppressed are talking and the deaf are listening. The world is watching a story that consists of twenty two chapters, the number of the Arab countries, and so far two chapters have been completed and in the process of getting finalized, the Iraq chapter and the Tunisia chapter. Not long, the whole story will be done, and the whole twenty-two or twenty-four chapters will be completed. The big domino effect has started and there is no way to stop it or go back to business as usual.

Report from Ramallah.....By Jamil Shawwa

Reports and people are telling a story of a city that is thriving, some call it the capital of the new Palestinian state and others call it the temporary capital until the eastern part of Jerusalem is ready to be declared as the capital of the Palestinian state, with the western part of Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Israel; both parts open and free for all residents and visitors. Ramallah since 1994 has been the actual capital of the Palestinian authority; being few miles away from Jerusalem gave it that importance. Gaza really has always been the other city, the girlfriend, or the companion, or the second wife- If you are in the Middle East, you could qualify to have**four wives at a time- or the city in the waiting to be on its own. It happened in 2006 when Hamas kicked the Palestinian authority and declared Gaza as a separate governing part from Ramallah... Two elected authorities, one in Gaza and one in Ramallah tell the story in brief of the Palestinian people. A story that is filled with disappointments, mistrusts, conspiracies, and pain. The Palestinian politicians fight, conspire and the people suffer. However, the people also are not so innocent; they are to a large part a reflection of the leadership. It looks like they are somehow do not expect more of their leadership, as if they expect them to fight and mistrust each other, otherwise the story would not ring true. Throughout their history, the Palestinians never had a leader, except for one, Yasser Arafat, that took historic and monumental, in some views, in mine, natural, steps to ensure the real and normal course of evolution. The Palestinians in the 40s of the last century had the worst leader, the most terrible by the name of Amin El-Husseini, a demagogue, opportunist with no morals or any values or at least any political skills, who went to the criminals the Nazis to plan some sort of post world war II German influence in the Middle East. El-Husseini like most of the Palestinian leadership has always read history wrong, has always been on the side of the losers and the defeated. If you look objectively at the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since the *UN partition of the pre 1948 historic Palestine, you cannot but notice that the Arabs and the Palestinians were the aggressors, those that missed all the opportunities to have a Palestinian state side by side of the state of Israel. The UN and the international community gave the Palestinians a state over 60 years ago on a silver platter, but they reject it then and continue to reject. Their history has been the history of the self-defeat; Israel has nothing to do with what the Palestinians think that they did not achieve.  Yasser Arafat read history well, saw the signs and understood the clues. The present and the future of the Palestinian people and the future Palestinian state does not reside with the way the Palestinians are within their Arab neighbors but most important on the relationship with the State of Israel. The future of the Middle East is the future that will have the State of Israel as a vibrant participant and part of it. The Palestinians will have a part too. The interest of having a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is an Israeli national and strategic interest, the Palestinians, some of them must know this fact, but they must be careful not to try to twist arms with Israel; It will not work, and it is if it happens would be just dumb politics. The most help to establish the state of Palestine will come from the neighbor to the north, the State of Israel. Anyone, whoever they might be or position, that would say otherwise, or contradict the importance of the State of Israel either in the Middle East or in establishing and supporting the Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, is either does not know anything about anything, or are pursuing an agenda that needs to be ignored, the least to say. The Palestinians need to hold elections, and if Hamas wins, then let it be but must first have a national project or a national model that identify the principles of the future of the state of Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza, which is a secular government, no other way, and a government that knows, identify, recognize, believe that the Palestinian state means only and nothing more and once and for all just the territories in the West Bank and The Gaza Strip. Anything other than that would be done for demagoguery and hypocrisy purposes and in this field, the Arabs and the Palestinians compete with the Iranians. Also those that would deny the previous, are those that do not want to see a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, and those, the Palestinians, need to ignore. My telephone speaker from Ramallah all of sudden asked, when was the last time you were here, I said just recently, twenty six years ago, maybe around 1986, I remember I went to Abu Iskandar for Shawerma sandwich and then to Rukab for ice-cream. I told her, you know Ramallah is Ramallah, a small town. She interrupted and said; forget about it, it is now looks like Tel-Aviv, Cairo, Amman or Beirut. She talked of hotels, conference halls, restaurants, nightclubs, banks, embassies, everything right now is in Ramallah; it became a mini capital and country by itself. I asked one more time, but please, answer this one, what happened to Abu Iskandar, she said he is there; the sons took over after the passing of the father. I said fine, if Abu Iskandar is still in Ramallah, then Ramallah might not be too bad.

*UN Resolution 181, 1947. 
**The strict rule of the Quran allows a man to have four wives at a time with the absolute precondition of complete equal treatments among them in everything. According to scholars, basically, it is something almost impossible to achieve, and thus the four wives cannot in actuality be materialized. Therefore, as any society, one wife at a time is the prevailing Islamic preference :)

Why Egypt Will Not Revolt...by Jamil Shawwa

The Egyptians never revolted against their rulers. For thousands of years the Egyptians learned to cope with their rulers, to manage them, to make jokes about them, to play the system, to work around the system, and to get by without violence. The Egyptians, the masses, like to play the superhero, but in fact, they are not like that, they are hard working people but when they talk loud, it is just like that, loud, and only loud. The Egyptians in fact are among the most peaceful nations in the Middle East. The biggest example is the historic peace with Israel when their late president Sadat took the initiative and visited the State of Israel and broke or crossed what he accurately described as the psychological barrier between Israel and the Arabs. The Egyptians were behind him, in general, and since then all the Arabs have been trying to follow his footsteps. Egypt's role as the biggest Arab country, requires it to do things that the rest of the Arab countries feel relieved that they do not have to be the first to do or they do not have to pioneer, one of them that is coming is the painful transition that Egypt might be required to succumb to which is being the first Arab country that will actually experiment with the Muslim Brotherhood as the elected government with the military as the guardian of the secular society. Egypt has pioneered almost every field in the Arab countries, and if the trend continues, it will again be the first to introduce the inevitable, which is the participation of the group that the political system in Egypt and the Arab world have been fighting for almost ninety years. *The Egyptian scholar Murad Wahba, and he is just one of many but one of few that still talk freely, confirmed in an interview with Nile TV that Memri carried, what other people and I have mentioned before that the Muslim Brotherhood would win any free election in any Arab country, maybe with the exception of Lebanon that that has a Shia version of the Muslim Brotherhood but Iranian style, which is the militant style that you do not have in any other Arab country, but that is Lebanon. Lebanon  plays in the Shia/ Iranian/ Iraqi side of the business rather than the Egyptian side, which is dominated religiously by the Muslim Brotherhood. Recently, Egypt and Jordan held parliamentary elections and both countries one way or the other had “asked” or “made sure” or arrested or chased members of the biggest political group and most influential right now in the Arab countries, The Muslim Brotherhood.  In Egypt, there is right now a sense of despair across all classes and the atmosphere there ranges from very skeptic to very cautious or very weary of the Egyptian president Mubarak. He is 82 years and does not want to leave the chair. Mubarak may feel it is an insult to leave the presidency early, maybe early to him means as long as he is alive. I predicted before that Mubarak would not be president of Egypt beyond 2012, but who am I to say or decide, I am just predicting based on logic and as we all know logic and politics are not on good terms and never will be. Hosni, as the Egyptians like to call him, has the tact, the shrewdness and the thick skin that needed to govern Egypt. This situation anyway cannot last forever; there must be a new president for Egypt soon. The change in Egypt will not be violent no matter what, it is just against the nature of the Egyptian people and it never happened before in their history that the people just jumped or revolted and changed the political system. Change has always been either internally from within the ruling class or the military. The only way for the Muslim Brotherhood to govern will not be other than by winning an election.  The armed forces will not allow a revolution and the Muslim Brotherhood will not ignite one. The Brotherhood knows that violence means their end and the end of their claim to have legitimacy.  I personally do not have a problem with the Muslim Brotherhood ruling countries in the Middle East as long as the group embraces the secular society and civil liberties and the historic choice of having two viable states in the holy land, The State of Israel and the State of Palestine in the West Bank and the Gaza strip with Jerusalem as capital of both, an open and vibrant city for the three divine religions and the city of peace to the whole world. Jerusalem is the only city on earth that is revered among the three divine religions; no other city has such a majestic and divine status.  It is ok to have Islam as an inspiration to political parties; we have the same thing in Turkey, Israel, Europe and the United States where some political parties embrace the religion, Islam, Judaism or Christianity, as a general inspiration or for overall moral guidance.

*Check Facebook post 01/03/2010

Lingerie...by Jamil Shawwa

It is so powerful, so inspiring, so motivating and so disarming. Its power resides in what it hides or keeps. It is the climax of a journey or a destination. Lingerie represents that final frontier, the last resort, the last line of defense, the Berlin wall, the Great Wall of China, The demilitarized zone, you name, I will probably agree with it. It is in a relationship, or in an intimate encounter the line of the transparent wall that the female companion tells you that you have arrived but not yet completely, that she is still holding the final card, the Joker, and she is still in control, and that if you do not behave well or act right, that transparent line will not fall, and that clip will not click and that little piece there will stick to it’s boundaries and that last line of defense will be like the no man land; no one can enter and no one can cross. It is almost always there in an encounter, I mean we, the male gender, just drop everything as if it is now or never or as soon as the opportunity arises saying here we are, and usually you would get that quick glance that make you feel as if time had stopped, and as if a snow storm or blizzard has arrived.  Women have more dignity than we do do, they keep their options open until the last moment, until that last second, until the final breath and the final touch and the final word. You are in complete suspense,  you do not know what is next, you do not know if you should touch that clip or that thread or that would just eliminate you from crossing the line, from cutting the ribbon, from reaching the warmest of all and the kindest of all and the most secured and patented place. Some say, that is why the first thing you do is just cross that line, jump over that fence, get rid of the wall even before you start, because once you start, you do not want the Great Wall of China all of a sudden to rise or that curtain to fall.