Egypt Under Suleiman.... a quick Detour by Jamil Shawwa

Internally:

A transition of power that could result in a Turkish/French style political system, with the prime minster- the majority in the parliament- and the president as the executive authority.

Externally:

Continuation of Egypt’s role in leading the Arab countries in the peace process with the State of Israel and the efforts to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.  The peace with Israel is as solid as the pyramids.

Continuation of Egypt’s role as a moderate country with the continuation of the special relations with the United States. I heard the other day a wannabe by the name of Tamim Barghouti- identified himself as a Palestinian poet in Al-Jazeera- who claimed that and I quote “America lost Egypt forever” end of Quote. I think that guy is lost himself, he does not know what he is talking about and he better off just focusing on growing up, read a book, two, or something.

The democratic reforms will extend to other Arab countries and will affect every single Arab country one way or the other.

Basically, Egypt is on the right track and the talk is now the future and not the past; Mubarak is the past.

Mubarak’s Last Hurrah… By Jamil Shawwa

I wrote before on “Arab American Wire” on 01/03/2011 “Why Egypt Will Not Revolt” which is yet to be seen if wrong or right- the measure whether it is true or not will be if the people directly will force the ruler out of power. I still think that president Mubarak is in his way out but not in the style of the Tunisian president, running away. Mubarak will not run away but will transition to his vice president who might form a national unity government or attract opposition figures in the government. According to news reports, ElBaradei, the Egyptian international figure who headed the IAEA might also have a role, some even said he might form the national unity government under “president Suleiman” The bottom line is that Mubarak is a thick skin but not an idiot, he very cleverly have built a momentum to show the chaos, and he is playing the fear factor, he is scaring the Egyptians of what might happen if he disappears all of a sudden; the looters and the outlaws and some say the bullies of his regime, his own peoples, in the streets. He ordered the police to run away, he ordered guards and police at prisons to just abandon posts; he intentionally let thousands of convicted felons and criminals to breakout. Mubarak is scaring the Egyptians, he is playing it smart- according to his way of thinking- and some might say playing it harsh, but he is playing the game and he is telling the Egyptians that it is ok, fine, I’m leaving but not so soon and only on my own terms. Mubarak hold grudges, no doubt about it. This is Mubarak and this is how he has been all along. He knows his people; he knows that the Egyptians used to say” It is better to be called a coward rather than to be called May Rest in Peace” meaning, live and not die for any cause or nothing is worth dying for. But the Egyptians are breaking away slowly form that stigma and they are revolting. Mubarak -years ago- would not have cared about all this and would not have blinked but not anymore, the world has changed 360 degree since the time he took power in 1981 after the assassination of President Sadat. The Soviet Union just collapsed in days, Eastern Europe disappeared, and the bills of freedom are ringing all over the world. Smart communications as I like to call them are everywhere, it is now Mubarak vs. Facebook, and Mubarak vs. Twitter and Mubarak Vs. the internet, and you have guessed it, they, the media the smart ones, are winning. Mubarak is leaving, he is gone already, but the actual departure will not be a coward one, again, according to how he thinks, it is not his style and probably there is no rush for him to be kicked out or for the US to demand it without due diligence, so and accordingly, he wants at least to leave like King Farouk left in 05/26/1952, when the Egyptian military saluted him while he was dressed as the sea admiral on board of his yacht “El Mahrousa” the translation, “the protected” a term which is the Egyptians usually refers to their country.