The virtual Politician...by Jamil Shawwa

The virtual politician is taking his place behind the scene or behind a screen. He is not into too much noise, or maybe he pretends not to be so. Maybe he likes it but he does not want to admit it. He is ready to scan the world for things that he thinks are important or catchy. He feels that his job is to analyze the news, events, and the news behind the news. He wishes sometimes if this virtual politician becomes a reality in today's fast-paced world. He thinks that every country needs virtual politicians who see things from the larger perspective, from top of the mountain, from the bottom up, and the sides, from the end of the road and not the beginning or middle of the road. He thinks that in order to get it right, that is the analysis, you must look at the news from two, three, or ten angles, you must see yourself as the news maker, the reader, and the intended audience or any passing by audience. The news to the virtual politician is not about an event, but it is about the psychology behind the event, the rational behind it, and the politics behind it, if there were any. When he analyzes news from America, Mexico, Israel, Palestine , Egypt, or Russia, China, Korea, England, Brazil, India, Africa, France, Germany or any other place in the universe or the outer space, he is not himself, not at all; he is German, Israeli, Palestinian, Indian, American, English, French or even an alien from outer space; he was called alien many times. I think it is enough; we got the picture. The virtual politician of course can be opinionated, he likes to show but he usually provides the other perspective and he usually uses the comparison to make the point. The virtual politician applies science, as he sees it, to the analysis and applies logic, his maybe, to politics, and will the two ever meet. His job is not to be a role model; far from it maybe, his job is to analyze, to provide the meal and let others taste or look and smell and decide for themselves. He does not want to change opinions, but if he does, then why not. He talks beauty, he analyzes women in lingerie and without them, he is not a womanizer, just an admirer to the female body and brain; they can meet, and they can mingle together and he then connects that to politics and to society in large. He analyzes leaders and he takes upon the tough issues. He does not go with the so-called conventional wisdom, to him, it is nothing, and it is just the expected. There is no utopia on earth, he says and claims, which is true, but what if there were utopia on earth, what if each country decided to elect the virtual politician to provide unbiased analysis and unbiased advice regarding all events or regarding what ever comes to their plate, or provided to them.  He is lazy, so sometimes, news has to come to him before he starts analyzing. Sometimes though, his analysis is unstoppable, like a machine or a computer, you put in and takes out in the same time or simultaneously. If each country decided to go with their utopian idea, it still should mean that it has to be an elected position, the virtual politician is not a virtual dictator. Every four years, without mentioning any names, just presenting ideas and methodology and examples, people would go to the ballots and elect that idea and of course, behinds that idea is the virtual politician. Once in office, still anonymous, except for few as well elected officials, his job is to filter the news, suggestions, and ideas and from looking from all angles, internal and external, political and psychological, he or she of course would suggest the best course. The idea depends on the political system, would be presented to the elected body, parliament, and get it debated and approved or not. The virtual politician is not like the council of wise men or women or both as some countries might have or pretends to have. The virtual politician is not necessarily a virtuous politician; on the contrary, he is a practical and realistic politician, Wait a minute that did not sound too good. The meaning is that he or she is not immoral, no, but they look at morality from the view of the different players or participants and the different cultures and backgrounds, not an easy job at all, probably the most difficult. The virtual politician can be and should be a paid position, I mean, that person needs to eat too and live, otherwise how he can think. The virtual politician cannot be elected for more than one term, again as I said before, we do not want the virtual politician to turn into the virtual dictator or feel like he or she is above the clouds, in some sort of an ivy tower. The virtual politician is not an executive politician, he cannot order but he can analyze. His powers stymies from his ability to convince the elected ruling body or any seeker of the effectiveness and practicality of his analysis. See the checks and balances again at its best. Oh, one thing about this virtual politician, he thinks that he does not have bones hidden in his closet, so he is free as a bird, or he thinks he is. Birds can also live in cages.

The Ten Years Old Boy, An Invitation or two to the Knesset...by Jamil Shawwa

The ten years old boy, young man in actuality does not recall the exact dates of these memorable visits to the halls of power in Israel. Distinguished family friends, who happened to be leading members of the Likud party graciously, extended an invitation to the ten years old boy to the Knesset, a second one followed afterward. He knows that they must have taken place during the period of 1983 and 1986. The most interesting thing about these visits, of course besides meeting the Israeli politicians, was that in both cases, the ten years old boy coming from Gaza did not have to go through the regular vigorous security check at the gates of the Knesset, just the name and he was whisked inside. Amazing, a young man from Gaza, going inside the lion's den with the most gracious welcome and the most gracious reception that he ever had in his life. No security concerns here, He went there and the secretary of that man took him for a tour, attended part of a session from the guests’ balcony with members of the Knesset having their famous debates and then to the grand office of that man who at the time chaired the most important committee in the Knesset. Talked a little, he, the boy, was shy or even timid. He really did not open his mouth much except to eat the biscuits that came with the Nescafe, say thanks, and nod his head, so lame. In the next visit same thing happened, passed through security very gracefully, a security guard looked inside the car that carried the boy and family members, looked at him, and mentioned his name and that was it. They all went to the restaurant with that friend and his wife and had the famous Israeli dish, shishlik, grilled cubes of chicken, so delicious. During lunch, subjects were discussed briefly, the Six Days War of 1967, the difference between Labor and Likud and the future of the Holy Land. What the boy heard was classy, he heard from the Israeli right wing leaders the sincere wish of peace with the Palestinians and he heard about their wish to have the *Palestinian leader that can make peace with Israel. The Ten years old boy and family members toured the Knesset, one more time for the ten years old boy, and left. At the Knesset and during both visits, he saw famous politicians, former prime ministers, ministers, and retired army generals that he used to see on TV and read about in the newspapers. He came face to face with historic Israeli politicians just walking the halls of Israel’s parliament. He also as mentioned above witnessed the famous Israeli debate in the chamber where members talk and interrupt each other; it is the Israeli way to show free political vitality. He personally prefers one member at a time talking freely but Israel is happy with that style and the ten years old boy had no problem there. The Knesset is not just a parliament; it is home for the Israelis, maybe like major democracies, for their people, the parliaments are their home. The ten years old boy saw the Israeli Arabs, Druze and Bedouins represented there, Hadash, the communist party, was the leading Israeli Arab party; it seems the Arabs in Israel at that time felt that being under the communist party would make a statement of some sort. To deal with Israel, you have to read and understand history, psychology, heritage, and you must look at the big picture; you must look at the world map daily, then narrow your perspective and lens to the Middle East, and see where is Israel and where the new state of Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza will be and look at the overall Arab and Muslim countries. The situation right now requires the twenty-four Arab countries to establish and recognize the state of the Israel and requires them to recognize the state of Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza. No preconditions for negotiations with Israel, no need to, otherwise, you will drag the problem for another fifty years. Do not worry about the **settlements in the West Bank and do not worry about the right of return, both will be resolved where the settlers would either stay under Palestinian sovereignty or move to the state of Israel, the return would be symbolic and only in the West Bank and Gaza. Jerusalem will be the capital of both states. The Arabs need to talk with Israel with an open heart and open mind. No tricky politics, their famous hypocrisy, pretension and childish maneuvers; they will not bring results, at least not with Israel. Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians got results from talking and making peace, the Syrians are an exception because Syria is not a normal country with normal political system, it is the regime that is there on a need to do basis and accordingly, once time arrives, ***Syria will oblige. You have to understand the Israelis and be gracious with them, they will reciprocate, no doubt about it.

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* Later on and in 1993, Yasser Arafat was the Palestinian leader that made peace with Israel; it is the peace that is still in the making.

** Search blog for Settlements, Israel, Palestine

*** Search blog for Syria

The Ten years old boy, the Journey from Gaza to Birzeit to Jerusalem.... By Jamil Shawwa

The boy, now a young man, graduated from a high school in Gaza, wanted to go to law school, or actually, that was the family’s wish. I think he wanted to do political science; maybe, he was not sure. Probably, if you ask him now, he would give the same answer, not sure, can you believe it. He tried The Jordanian University, but for some reason the president of the university told him that his application was lost in the mail. That ten years old boy asked the president, he remembers this episode very well, if the school might have lost it, and the president looked at him with disgust and told him, maybe these things happen in Gaza but not in Jordan. That president of that university- Abd Elsalam Al Majali - later on became a prime minister of Jordan and later on signed on behalf of Jordan the peace treaty with Israel, best known as the Wadi Araba treaty. In Jordan, the king does not sign treaties; the prime minster does it. He – the ten years old boy-then with the help of his family went to Cairo University, but it was too late for that school year, so he enrolled for the 1984-1985 school year at the Cairo University Law school and for the 1983-1984, went to Birzeit University, about two hours drive from Gaza, maybe one hour an half, it depends on the car and the driver. The young man still the same ten years old boy, went ahead and rented an apartment with a friend from Gaza who went to the same school. The boy enrolled in the Middle Eastern studies program; political science. The two students rented an apartment in a basement in a building in that town Birzeit; the school was named after the town. Very interesting apartment that one was, to be extremely having a positive attitude, in reality it was hell on earth, horrible, the mold used to cover his shoes, imagine; mold growing on shoes. Birzeit University was a dynamic place; it was the first and main university in the Gaza Strip and the West bank, a place where Palestinian politics and parties were involved in a very active way. All the Palestinians factions had students representation there including the newcomers, the so-called religious factions, and there used to be elections for the student board. I think at that time, Fateh, the main PLO faction used to win every time. The student was not involved in politics nor was he involved in any of those student groups. He used to read Al-Quds newspaper and the rest used to read Al-Fajer. Al-Quds was the moderate and al Fajer was the pro PLO. He was different and still is, not sure, if this is good or bad but this is how it is. His professors were ok, they all had PhDs in their respective fields and one thing he noticed is that they tried to be objective. The university system was the American semester system, and not the one-year British or French system as it was at Cairo at that time. He remembers once he had some sort of dispute with another student over a very important subject, you knew it of course, not the Palestinian- Israeli issue, or anything simple like that but it was a serious subject, it was over a girl. The student, the same little ten years old boy, touched her shoulder in a much-respected way; he really did not care for that girl at all. He likes to show appreciation to the female silky skin sometimes by very gentle touches but always very respectful, on the back or shoulder. She actually had nice shoulders and that was all that she had in the little ten years old boy mind. Another student got jealous and kind of pushed him, the boy pushed back and that was it, nothing serious. When he went back to that apartment, probably the fight would have been better than going back to that hellhole, he found delegations from all the Palestinian factions at the door trying to blame each other for that incident- typical Palestinian politics, basically trying to have him on their side, probably they have done the same with the other student. I think he really did not know what was going on; he was just there until his family tells him that is it, and it is time to go to Cairo. The ten years old boy, the young man now had another interesting incident that he does not forget, that one was funny but really somewhat embarrassing, you have to have embarrassing moments in life; otherwise, life would be boring or even abnormal. The little boy, now young student, or as we say here in America, junior college student, decided to get drunk one night, maybe he did not really decide, but it happened and he did not expect it. It was a night; he made a scene, he remembers, and had to go to Jerusalem in a convoy of “will- wishers” to be treated there from the side effects, to say it mildly. Oh, that was something. It never happened before and it never happened after, so one time is not too bad, but that one was something very memorable. The whole school the next morning knew about it. Birzeit is a little town, not to say a village, and the university is the lifeline, besides, his friend- the apartment mate and other friends were so excited about that episode that they could not keep their mouth shut. He- the ten years old boy might have done the same any way if that episode happened to someone else. A third memorable incident at the school took place in one Saturday morning or Sunday, he is not sure, but there were no classes on that day. He was walking the narrow and hilly streets of Birzeit with group of friends, maybe ten, when all of a sudden one of the students yelled; the Israelis are coming, a military patrol was approaching, and those students started to run, but first looked around trying to find a hideout, and tried to pull the ten years old boy with them but he just did not run, stood there, not even kept walking, as if he wanted to be in the reception of the approaching patrol. They screamed at him run… run, but the ten years old boy said why, I did not do anything wrong. The students ran to a near by vacant store, opened the door, it was not locked and hid there. The Israeli patrol came by, stopped, an office came down and asked the ten years old boy for an identity card, the boy obliged and the officer asked him, why you did not run as the rest, we know that they ran away and we know that they are hiding there. The ten years old boy answered, why should I run, I did not do anything wrong. The officer then asked him, you are not afraid of Israel, and the boy said, no, why should I. The officer smiled, and something extraordinary happened after that, the officer stepped back a little, moved up his right hand… not to hit the boy but to salute him; he just gave the ten years old boy a military salutation and the boy returned the gesture and saluted the officer. The officer still took the identity card and told the boy to report the next morning to Bet Eil, the headquarters of the Israeli military command for the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The boy went the next morning, alone, and at the gate, that officer was there, handed the boy his card and that was the end of that episode that the ten years old boy remembers very well. The student had to leave that terrible apartment, so he moved to a hotel that was owned by family friends in Jerusalem where he spent three magnificent months in that magnificent city  in a room that looked over the old town and the wall of Jerusalem. There, the little boy had a ball, actually there, where the little boy really came to realize contrary to the conventional wisdom that German girls could be the most sensual if they choose to. A Bavarian girl, from Munich, was the one that made him change his mind about Germany; he means the social feminine side of Germany. It is time to go to Cairo now, and then to Washington DC, and then Iowa, and back to his new and permanent home and country, Washington DC, The United States of America.

The Ten Years Old Boy,*Lunch in Silwan-Jerusalem........by Jamil Shawwa

It is 2:30 PM, on a Thursday, of the year 1974. The bell rang, and the students at that Jerusalem school were starting to leave the class, it is the end of the school day. The ten years old boy left slowly, no rush, no one is waiting to collect him except for that big yellow bus with that driver and his assistant, fighting again as usual. His classmates are running out of the class, but not him, the classmates are running to their parents waiting outside the school walls on a famous Jerusalem street, Nablus street, to pick them up. The boy's family is miles and miles away in the sleepy city of Gaza by the Mediterranean. How can anyone believe that a city on the great and fantastic Mediterranean Sea and in the same time stale, poor Gaza, he thought. He continued to walk, left the gate, climbed the bus staircase and to his usual seat, exactly as the morning routine and again, no one next to him. The boy with himself, his books and his perspectives on the world. The bus started rolling through the afternoon busy streets of this magnificent city, Jerusalem, through Nablus street and passing by the prestigious Schmidt's college for girls , Salaheldin street, to the suburbs, Dahiat Al-Barid , El Ezaria, Shofat, Kalandia, oh, wait a minute, here is Kalandia airport, what a nice strip of runway, but he was told that it has not been used since 1967 and the demise of the Jordanians from the West Bank and the arrival of Israel as the new ruler. The airport has been used for small military aircraft only. The bus continues, to Ramallah, no checkpoints whatsoever. Dinner is ready at the boarding school, it is Thursday night, and tomorrow, Friday, is off, so tonight is “Mogadara” night, lentil, rice, and fried onions on top, with salad on the side. What a feast, oh wait another minute, the boy as the rest of the students had a locker and the locker had food from his family, fantastic, he can compliments the Mogadara with some cheeses or snacks before going to bed. Hey, Waite a third a minute, it is symposium night at the boarding school, and it was his turn, he volunteered actually, to present his version of the October war, or shall we say, Ze’ev Schiff’s version of the war between the Arabs and Israel, which took place a year earlier. Ze’ev Schiff did not only talk about a war; he talked about a nation that was shaken by the events, he talked about Israel's historic military leader, Moshe Dayan, panicking in the middle of the night. He also talked about Israel’s pain to have to fight in one of its most sacred days, Yom Kippur. He was talking about the end of the reign of Israel’s historic political party, HaMa'arakh, and the power behind it, the Histadrut, and the labor unions. “Earthquake in October” is the title of that book. Historically, Israel turned around the October war, and if the war continued, Israel probably could have reached Damascus and could  have ended the rule of Hafiz Al-Assad. On the Egyptian front, the Israeli forces led by Ariel Sharon, surrounded the Egyptian third army in Sinai and were going to advance towards Suez and Ismailia. Nevertheless, the October war was the first time the Arabs felt that they did something a little different from just running away or running around. The Egyptians crossed the Suez Canal, the Syrians as usual, screamed- from Damascus- and screamed and screamed like a woman in hard labor or on a verge of a C-section. That war according to Ze’ev Schiff was a turning point in the Israeli psychic and politics, Actually three years later, another political earthquake took place that continues to shape the Israeli politics until now which was the rise of the Likud and the start of the right wing reign on politics in Israel, Menahem Begin- Bibi Netanyahu’s mentor- has arrived. The boy started to talk about the war, and about Israel, and the students could not believe their ears or eyes, this boy was talking about it as if he were an Israeli; he was transforming what the writer wanted to say and presenting it to his Palestinian and Israeli-Arab students from the eyes of an Israeli reader or analyst. See, the boy could not have done any other way, probably. He had to analyze the book as it is or as he understood it or as he thought the writer wanted him to understand. The questions started and one student asked him, what do you think of David Ben-Gurion - the book mentioned him in a historic review of the country- the first Israeli prime minister and some consider him the founding father of the state of Israel with the other historic leader, Haim Weisman, who was the first president of the state. The boy answered, he is ok, he was very important to Israel. the other students warmed up, and asked what do you mean, and the boy just said, not sure, but he is an important Israeli leader. Now, nature took over after that statement, the students started denouncing the ten years old boy for his opinion of an Israeli, and the boy just looked and told them that he was just stating what is in the book. The students in general were ok except for one low life loser with no class with the initials of **U or O -for the first name, depends on how you write it and A for the last name. That U.A was a sneak and his younger brother, who was not in the same school but later on went to Berzeit University, was like him, same no class. Another student asked him, they loved then to embarrass the little boy, but what do you think of him, Ben-Gurion and the boy answered, not sure, he was the first prime minister of Israel and he won the war against five or six Arab countries. That was it for that boy, the supervisor ended the symposium, looked at the boy with hateful eyes and said it is bedtime, go and wash your feet before jumping into your beds. He used actually to inspect their feet while in bed. Years, and years later the boy got flashbacks about that supervisor's behaviors. He - the supervisor-used to set in his bed in his room half naked-top- with a specific student as the supervisor, no top, not behind closed doors, not at all, but open doors.  The boy recalls having all the students gathered in the supervisor’s room to chat almost every evening. He just wondered and years later, it struck him- see, he- the ten years old boy- was slow to process or something or was so innocent that such things, and there might have been nothing, could not even have crossed his mind. That boarding school had two supervisors, one happened to be a Muslim- the subject matter of this article- and the other happened to be a Christian, the Muslim was from Silwan and the other was from Ramallah, the Silwan supervisor was the dominant. No names will ever be mentioned but the initials of the first and last names of that supervisor, without the shirt, and his favorite student were the same, S.A.  It is Friday morning; it was nice sunny and cold but very refreshing. The supervisor, same one, the bed guy, reminded everyone that his parents, who lived in Silwan, invited all the students to lunch in their house. That lunch in Silwan stuck in the memory of the boy until now, it was hosted by good people from Silwan, the supervisor’s parents. That supervisor was some sort of strange mixture of many things, envy and hatred towards certain families, and he might have had like many of his age group and unmarried or unattached, some problems. He used to hit the students physically, no abuse, but slamming the faces few times. Verbally terrorizing those that were different, not accommodating his political views, actually the boy did not think that he- the supervisor- had any views, he pretended to be with Arafat but at that time who dared not to pretend to be with Arafat. There was one in fact, the ten years old boy, he never been even close to embrace the PLO. Later on Yasser Arafat made history by signing a peace treaty with Israel and taking giant steps as the first Palestinian leader to have the vision and the courage to make peace with Israel. The little boy revolted few times and the punishment was isolation, not being invited to participate in events in the boarding school, plays and such. The boy does not remember how they went that morning from Ramallah to Silwan, but he remembers the vine leaves, the stuffed vine leaves with rice and meat and the stuffed zucchini being cooked in fresh tomato souse- in Gaza it was not cooked with tomatoes, just the lamb broth and lemon, garlic- on burned wood. The students gathered the woods; put them in the middle of a hole surrounded by stones and ignited the fire and the rest was spectacular. They had yogurt on the side and freshly baked bread, called, Eltaboon. If the boy remembers well, olives were there too. Even while eating, that supervisor never looked at that little ten years old boy with kindness, his mother, the supervisor’s mother, the boy remembers, yelled at him to stop annoying the boy, he would come and hit him- not hard- on his head as a sign of a joke, but it was not joyful to the boy. It is time again to go back to that boarding school, tomorrow is Saturday, and it is school day, but Sundays were off.  It is time to go to bed, that supervisor was about to go around the different rooms sniffing and looking at the feet of the students, to make sure that they were washed and no one slept in his socks. The boy until now loves that wooden cooked food in that nice town Silwan by the famous and magical walls of Jerusalem's old city.  The journey continues…

 

 

 

Disclaimer: True events and persons. No names will ever be revealed to protect the innocent.

* A city adjacent to the old city of Jerusalem

** Initials of names mentioned are when writing the names in English.

Report Card To Obama......By Jamil Shawwa

Leaders shine in conflicts and they shine when their countries or companies or whatever they lead are in crises. Crises sometimes bring the best in leaders and bring the worst in pretenders. In America, in the mid 90s, the economy was in recession and in crises, and this brought Bill Clinton to be reelected for a second term and brought down the republican revolution led by Newt Gringrich. Couple of years earlier, Bill Clinton defeated the victorious George Bush, just coming out of liberating an oil oasis called Kuwait. Today, we have a conflict or two, we are in crisis or two, we are at war or two and we are in that context leading the world in combating the modern day terrorism. It is no longer state-to-state wars, but it is state to groups that decided on their own for whatever reason to create an atmosphere of fear and terror against everything that sounds normal in life. Some people like to resemble Barack Obama to both Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter; both are considered as losers in American politics. Both Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter came to power when America was not itself, was in crisis or just came out of crisis. Ford after Nixon resigned, after the Watergate scandal, and he just completed Nixon second term and then lost a bid to be elected on his own; he lost it to Jimmy Carter, what an irony. Ford was unlucky, it was not only Watergate that brought him down by proxy but also Vietnam, America in his era, signed the agreement to withdrew it's forces from South Vietnam, basically signed an agreement that stated that America was defeated to the Vietcong. The whole world saw and witnessed the humiliating withdrawal and the helicopter on top of the US embassy in Saigon with the southern Vietnamese trying to flee, women, children, everybody. That was a deep, deep scar in America's pride. America elected Jimmy Carter, who brought the Egyptians and the Israelis together, and chaperoned a historic peace treaty but did not handle the Iranian clerics' revolution well, and America again, after Vietnam witnessed the humiliation of its embassy members in Tehran being hijacked and kidnapped by the new and rising power in the Middle East, Iran. Carter did not survive it, or maybe it was the curse of the ailing Shah of Iran-Muhammad Reza Pahlavi- that Carter ordered to leave the country for the fanatics and the pretenders, the clerics that are running Iran right now. Carter lost to Reagan who- arguably- restored America's pride, ended the cold war, and established America as the only supreme and super power on earth. I prefer though, after this long introduction to resemble Barack Obama to Bill Clinton and not to Gerry Ford or Jimmy Carter. Both Clinton and Obama came in similar economic situations, both came after presidents who won wars but lost the economy. Today, now, Congress is divided, the republicans won the House of Representatives and the Democrats maintained control over the Senate. In 1994, Newt Gingrich led what was called then, the republican revolution with the slogan of "take the country back", as it is now, but instead of the republican revolution, we now have the Tea Party movement that is trying to put life in the dead veins of the Republican Party. Clinton in 1996 managed to secure a second term and this is the same legacy that Obama is trying hard to do, to secure a legacy, to be included in this unique club and very exclusive club of American presidents that managed to have two terms in office. This is Obama's goal or it should be at least. When he won in 2008, his next day item should have been how to prepare for the 2012 elections, besides of course securing and implanting an agenda that he promised the voters to implement. His team should have looked that far, maybe they did; we still need to see. He, Obama, made history as the first African American president to America, and just being president, he is making it every day. But this is not enough or no longer enough to secure a second term; he needs to show a genuine leadership, skills and tact that he already has shown during the 2008 elections. He cannot rest or resolute- if he wants to win- until he wins in 2012. Obama has a golden opportunity right now to shine, he did not lose both houses, he still control the money making and the power house, the senate but he must work hard not to appease the republicans- smart politics-; if he does, he will not be reelected. He needs again to work hard to show genuine leadership in pursuing his agenda, and not shying away from it, and in the same time work with whatever and whoever he needs to at least show the American people that he is doing his best and if that does not work, then the people, and they are smart enough, will see who did what and who obscured what. Obama has just secured a second mortgage on his political life, let us see if he can pay it off by 2012, or at least, being qualified to refinance by 2012. Either way, it means that he would get a second term.