Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The locker Belongs to Me....Short Story ..by Jamil Shawwa

Girl: what would you like to have?

Boy: not sure yet

Girl: why, didn’t you get the list?

Boy: what list,
Girl: the usual weekly list

Boy: sorry, I do not understand...

Girl: the list of things that your friends like, and you usually buy to put in your locker

Boy: I did not get a list this week..

Girl: Why? Anything wrong

Boy smiling: Nothing wrong, I just realized that the locker belongs to me.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Prince Bandar, Machiavelli, and the Future of the Kingdom by Jamil Shawwa

The “legend” says that the founding father of the modern Saudi Arabia,” Abdel Aziz Bin Saud”, captured the current Saudi Capital, Riyadh, with a group of only forty men.
He moved after that and defeated his arch enemies the Hashemites, the family of the current rulers of Jordan, and captured Mecca and Medina- the heart and soul of Islam- and the heart and soul of the Hashemites.
Ibn Saud, as he was popularly known, was a politician by nature, a perceptive, clever and devious Bedouin, a tribesman who knew how to work and make alliances throughout the Arabian Peninsula either by multiple and calculated marriages from various competing tribes, bribery or force, as needed.
Ibn Saud was actually setting on the engine of the modern civilization, Oil, which was discovered just after he established the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He went ahead in the early years and made the two most important alliances that kept the family until today in power; the first one was internally with the Wahhabis, an extreme sect and interpretation of the Sunni Islam which the Wahhabis created and marketed as the true religion; in fact, it is the political version of their view of Islam.
The second alliance was with the rising and to be dominant world power since the beginning of the 20th century, the United States of America. Very ironic and significant alliance between two extreme contrasts; America outside and the Wahhabis inside.
As a matter of fact, the Saudis were the first to establish the political Sunni Muslim religious movement best known as El-Ekhwan- the Brothers or Brotherhood- of which the most famous one sprung, the Muslim Brotherhood that has become the nightmare of the Arab political secular regimes and now is the democratically elected rulers in both Egypt and Tunisia-In Tunisia, they do not call themselves the Brotherhood but it’s the same ideology and style.
Two monumental events reshaped Saudi Arabia in the last quarter of the 20th century and the very first years of the 21st century, the first took place in 1979- same year when the clerics of Iran took over the country from the Shah- when a group of militant Saudi extremists seized the Grand Mosque of Mecca for over two weeks with allegations that the seizure could not have taken place without the direct help of the Bin Laden family which had sympathizers among them to those fanatics. In addition, the Bin Laden family at the time was in charge of the renovations to expand the Grand Mosque of Mecca.
The second event took place in the morning of 09/11/2001, when a group of Sunni Muslim Arabs from Al-Qaeda terrorist organization led by Osama Bin Laden, mostly Saudis with an Egyptian as the mastermind, seized and hijacked planes and attacked targets in America. The first terrorist attack in 1979 had regional consequences but it should have raised red flags of the horrors to come. The second terrorist attack had a world and earth shaking consequences that are still taking place until now and will continue for the foreseen future.
The sons of Saud, who took over from the father when he passed in the early 50s, inherited a country that has been the focal point in world politics, it has Oil, it has the holiest religious places for Muslims and it produced arguably the worst and deadliest enemies to civilization in the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21 century, Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda terrorist organization.
The current king of Saudi Arabia, Abdullah, is in his late 80s, the Crown Prince is in the same age group and both with health issues. It was much said about the late Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdel Aziz that he had never been a talented leader; he had been the defense minister for over fifty years until his passing on October 22, 2011. His role and handling of the seizure in Mecca in 1979 was considered mediocre. His name was attached to the modernization of the armed forces but probably anyone could have done the same with hundreds of billions of dollars at their disposal and thousands of advocates and consultants on their side.
Besides, of course the other hundreds who made billions just from briberies to get the weapons deals passed. His son and most well know politician, Bandar Bin Sultan, likes to be known, which he is not, as the Machiavellian of Arab politics. He indirectly through a journalist published a book few years ago, “Prince”, which he mirrored on but with a different plot “The Prince” by Machiavelli, in which with the co writer thought to put some vagueness and mystery around his role in Saudi and regional Middle Eastern politics.
Anyone that ever watched Prince Bandar would have probably noticed that he is like an open book; you can tell what he thinks of before he even thinks of it, the style is so obvious. Prince Bandar was explicitly implicated in the famous British BAE weapons deal called “Al-Yamamah” in which British press said that he made hundreds of millions of dollars in “commission” out of over 40 billion pounds weapons deal.
Tony Blair the former British prime minister had to intervene personally asking the formal investigation to halt, citing British national security. The Saudis have been famous for generations in having brokers and intermediaries from the royal family and close to them getting bribes in exchange of lucrative weapons deals to their own country.
Many probably remember the most famous Saudi weapon dealer in the 60s and 70s, Adnan Khashoggi, who once made the honor of being on Time cover for his flamboyant dealings. It seems to me that the first step to reform Saudi Arabia is to transfer the powers to the cousins, the sons of the brothers, whom are the sons of Abdel Aziz; it is like a maze. The second step is to Create a Vatican like status to Mecca and Medina, the holiest sites for the Muslims and the birth place and later residence of the prophet Muhammad, and open up the rest of the kingdom gradually to a style that would make women feel like normal human beings, that can drive, travel, work, vote, without having to have a male sponsor, a husband, brother, driver, etc.
Today, 01/05/2013, a Saudi clerk, advocated that women and men should continue to be separated. The alliance between Al-Saud and Al-Wahabbeen, the strict and in my opinion not related to the original tolerant Sunni interpretation of the religion Islam, will continue but will take into a different shape if the royals in Saudi Arabia want their privileges kept; the anger at the religious police in Saudi Arabia is growing and especially among women who are standing up for themselves and refusing their insults in the streets of the country.
The Saudis need to reach out to the minority Shiite that they have been oppressing and provide them with equal rights; the Shiite in Saudi Arabia are a time bomb that can explode any moment and with it the whole oil rich Eastern section of the kingdom could explode.
The very last step which is probably needed is the establishment of a new popular system that would allow the Saudis, men and women to choose a representation and a government under the royal flag, to move closer to a constitutional monarchy that has direct involvement and guardianship with the holy places, with the rest falls under parliamentary oversight.
So far, those that call themselves reformers within Saudi Arabia are nothing but carbon copies of the current regime. They ask for political freedom for themselves and their fellow men but not the female sector of the society. The reformers need to look deeper into what is considered the root cause of the problem, which is the grand void the Saudis feel, it is as a cage made of diamonds, but still a cage.
There are numerous stories, true probably, about a hypocritical society that when inside Saudi Arabia they claim all the virtues in the book and outside Saudi Arabia, and inside within the high walls of their palaces, they live the lives of playboys and playgirls, both the Saudi men and women. The reformers ask for freedom that they deny their closest family members, their mothers and sisters and wives and “companions”.
It is a society that is so pretentious, so fanatic inside yet so tolerant to world alliances. A society whose allegations and rumors of a corrupt royal family fill the news daily. A strange secretive society closer to a cult rather than a regular country, a cult that is called a country. But a cult that is made out of clear and breakable glass.









Friday, December 24, 2010

Kabab Soltani and Dol Sot Bi Bim Bap

On November 15, 2013 CNN reported that Western nations near initial deal to halt advancement in Iran nuke program. The negotiations have intensified since the ‘historic’ September phone call between president Obama and the newly elected ‘reformist’ president of Iran, Rouhani.
Couple of weeks ago, same ‘world powers’ were scrambling in Geneva, Switzerland, and wherever they can around the new/old prize; Iran. But this time what Iran has been calling for over thirty years as ‘the Great Satan’ has joined. The United States of America joined other world powers for the first time in engaging directly and publicly Iran’s ruling Mullahs in ‘conversations’ trying to curb the Mullahs appetite to have what looks like nuclear power capabilities.
Now, as a historical fact, Iran started its appetite for nuclear power since before the political Mullahs took over power from ‘ Shahenshah’ Muhammad Reza Pahlavi in 1979. Before 1979 Iran had an emperor, Shahenshah, now it has a supreme leader. Before 1979 it had the ruthless Savak to suppress its people, now it has the ruthless Basij to do the same job. The bottom line is nothing has changed in Iran except for instead of the out of touch Shah, Iran got a Mullah that calls himself a supreme leader.
Couple Of weeks ago demonstrations in Tehran against America did not mean a thing; typical politically staged demonstrations that the Iranian political system created on the verge of the massive political changes of the aftermath of the Shah. Since 1979 every Iranian move against the US has been done by religious apparatus in accordance with what they see as necessary to keep a certain image even when a ‘reformist’ president is at the helm. The Iranians are so predictable which in Middle Eastern politics means ‘ close but no cigar’.
The sequence of events that led to the Iranian revolution of 1979 show an orchestrated policy and events to remove the Shah who again was out of touch and completely distant from his people. The Pahlavi family until today probably does not understand that they brought the Mullahs to power through their political arrogance and blatant stupidity
Kamal Ataturk succeeded in Turkey because he led every single Turkish to believe that what he was doing will benefit them and will benefit Turkey. The Shah on the contrary led none and no one believed him. The hypothetical questions that come to mind are, would the Shah have accepted to be dragged into war with Iraq or would Iraq have dared to wage a war if the Shah remained in power. Second, would the Shah have accepted to create a terror organization by the name of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Third, would the Shah have accepted to verbally attack Israel in the comic way the Mullahs have been doing since 1979. The answers probably are a big No.
If Khomeini stayed in Iraq and was not allowed to leave to France, the Iranian revolution would not have succeeded. In 1979, it was clear to the United States that the Shah had cancer and he will die which he had and died one year later. The US knew that the Pahlavi family is finished and that the Shah son was not to be. Again, the Shah was a dreamer that did not reach out to his people but expected them to believe his distant voice and see his absent face telling them that things will be better and Iran will be a great nation-some day.
Iran, one of the richest countries in oil in the world was to start to play a role in Middle Eastern politics and was to assume the command of the Shiite Muslims uprising not against The United States and Israel but against their historic nemesis; the Arab Sunni Muslims of the Middle East. By verbally attacking Israel which anyone with any sense should have known that such attacks are seriously flawed, wrong, aimless and have no reason or logic or purpose except for to rally tiny populations in the Middle East and gain fake ‘revolutionary legitimacy’. The main reason of such policy is to bring together the Iranian people around a cause, even a false cause and keep feeding on and off into this cause to bring the oppressive Mullahs regime a reason to stay in power. Creating a nuclear program was another tool to keep the Iranians in line behind their oppressors.
The Shah oppressed his people and the Mullahs took over and since 1979 have been doing the same and worse. Iranian women cannot swim in public and cannot have a hairdo shown in public and cannot be human in public. Influential intelligence services in the Middle East know every single component of Iran’s much publicized nuclear program and they could bring it to a finish, to a halt, and finally destroy it if they choose to do so. But if they have done so, then the whole art of diplomacy and political science would have collapsed.
The theory since the end of Vietnam war has been that unless there is an imminent danger, the use of force-if any- to change adversary’s ‘attitudes’ should be the last resort. Al Qaeda terrorist organization was an imminent and present danger and the US acted in Afghanistan. Saddam in Iraq was not as imminent; the US took care of him in 1990, kicked him out of Kuwait, and then came back and finished the job in 2003. Now we have three regimes in three countries that the US has described for the longest time as rogue regimes. North Korea, Syria and Iran are the best example of the US doctrine of imminent and present danger. Obama promised to attack but not destroy Alassad if he uses chemical weapons. Al Assad did, Obama retracted and decided to let the international community represented by world powers and the UN to have the upper hand while pointing a stick in the face of the adversaries.
North Korea and Iran are the same story, sanctions, threat of use of force and then negotiations. North Korea and Iran did their part as well in this game of politics, North Korea has been attacking the US left and right verbally and Iran attacking Israel left and right verbally. The picture despite of all this back and forth world rhetoric is not so bleak- at the end of the day we might see diplomatic relations between Israel and Iran and a one united Korea under the free Enterprise system of South Korea. The art of diplomacy is based on conflict resolution. We safely can say that diplomacy would seize to exist if conflicts do not exist.
Accordingly, the use of force based on this theory is the last resort unless again there is an imminent and clear and present danger. The outcome of these three countries negotiations will result in many things- it could result in wars too- but most likely will result in creating precedents and SOPs -Standard Operating Procedures- for the game of engagement of similar future situations. The world cannot afford- no matter how attractive it is to just to knock down adversaries- to wage wars at the smallest provocation.
Other conclusions could include allowing Iran to have limited nuclear capacity- Korea already tested nuclear weapons but it is under full control of the Chinese- or just allowing Iran to have ’peaceful nuclear generators’ or no nuclear at all. In any case, experience, practice and politics for the last 34 years proved that Iran is not a country anyone should worry about or worry of or even have concerns that it would attack any country in the Middle East or the world. Iran is North Korea of the Middle East. So if you are a foodie, go ahead, enjoy a fantastic dish of Kabab Soltani with Salad Shirazi on the side, or swing by a Korean market and have a hot stone ball of Dol Sot Bi Bim Bap; no worries there.
*Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. Photos by Reuters
*****Updated November 16, 2013

Thursday, December 16, 2010

*The Pope, the Vatican, Act II by Jamil Shawwa

I never have a problem with any divine religion or any religion for that matter. See, I am nobody to have a problem with a religion, but I am somebody that could have a problem with the practices and practitioners of any divine religion or any religion or faith for that matter. A leak from Wikileaks was, among other things of course, a correspondence from the Pope and the Vatican objecting to consider Turkey or to accept Turkey to the European Union. The leaks revealed, no one denied anything thus far, that the Pope's objection- the Pope is German and we know that Germany has a challenge with the Turkish- German population , not that this statement has anything to do with the Pope’s decision but I thought it might be worth mentioning- to Turkey’s request is because Turkey is an Islamic country. I’m not sure if the Pope knows history or not or if he knows geography or not or if he remembers that Turkey is part of Nato and part of the overall American strategy in the Middle East and Europe or not, or if he knows that Bosnia Herzegovina and parts of the former Yugoslavia are also Islamic societies or not, but it seems that the Vatican again is swimming against the tide and against logic as it did in many stations through out it’s history from denying Martin Luther, the 16th century reformist and the war against arts and cultures during the enlightenment age and until now, in addition to the dubious role of the Vatican during world war II. I have not been fond of Turkey’s stupidity when it sent a ship to Gaza but I’m with the Turkish request, it is a European country, Eurasian and it seems that it met all the qualification; the only thing waiting is a political decision to include it in the EU. The Greek objection is fading and the American position as far as I am concerned is not objecting. You want those that represent the real, the regular, or the normal Islam, as the majority of Muslims believe, to be represented where they originally must be represented; otherwise, you leave the field to the murderers of Al-Qaeda and the mercenaries the Taliban to fill in the space. I have few issues with Turkey’s role in the Middle East but that does not prevent me from asking that Turkey be part of the EU, it is its natural place by the way and not the Middle East. I hope some sort of an Asian entity would also find a place for Iran and this way the real Middle East, as I see it, would consist only of the State of Israel, the State of Palestine, and the Arab countries surrounding them. On the other hand, if that scenario does not materialize, I can go to my original new Middle East, which would include Iran and Turkey as part of it. Maybe, I do not know, Turkey would be a major player in the Middle East and that is why it has not joined the EU, maybe. In the same time, The Pope and the Vatican really need to do house cleaning first and this house cleaning is the most serious challenge to the moral and theological authority of the Catholic Church. The house cleaning is regarding the cover up of those priests from all over the world molesting children and doing abnormal sexual acts with minor boys. So the Pope needs to focus on cleaning his house first. He also needs to bring transparency to the Church and seriously have a zero tolerance against any priest or affiliates with the Catholic Church that use the divine magic that is called the religion to manipulate people to their subhuman acts.


* Read also " The Pope and Islam" from 2006 here on http://arabamericanwire.blogspot.com/

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