Friday, May 27, 2005

The Arab Monarchies

Historically, the Arab Monarchies have played a stabilizing role in the Middle East politics. They have been the voice of reason and moderation in the midst of the nationalistic turmoil that engulfed the region in the fifties and the sixties. Then, the monarchies stood against Nasser of Egypt in his quest to overturn the Arab regimes into ones that embodied his version of Arab Nationalism. They also have neutralized the religious extremes by getting them under their tent and provided them with a legitimacy. They also were, specially in Saudi Arabia the voice of Islam to the world. At that time the Shiite power did not exist and Iran, the protector of militant Shiite was part of the western alliance. Now, time has come to evaluate the Arab Monarchies. In a time where democracy spreads , the Arab people have aspirations for freedom and human rights, and their is a need for The United States to ensure that the Middle East exports oil and not extremism, the Arab monarchies need to be developed. The most problematic monarchies are in the Gulf, the oil area, where a historic alliance between religion and politics has shown signs of ineffectiveness in the era of the Internet and the information age. Most of the fanatics that use Islam as an umbrella for their actions come from the Gulf and particularly from Saudi Arabia. In Saudi, there is a political and spiritual and social vacuum. There are frustrations and aspirations. Rich kids from will known families are drawn towards extremism because of the vacuum and the suppression they live in. The Kingdom can not continue with it's current alliance. It has to address the aspirations of it's people, it has to open up the place and start the steps towards a constitutional monarchy. This monarchy will continue to protect the Holly places in Mecca and Medina, and will continue to provide the moral leadership to it's people and to billions of Muslims around the world who come every year for pilgrimage. It's difficult to imagine Saudi Arabia opening up completely but it's imaginable to have a government that is accountable to a an elected body. In Jordan and Morocco I see steps and a momentum building up towards constitutional monarchy faster than the Gulf countries or in particular faster than Saudi Arabia. In Jordan, a final solution to the Palestinian question will provide a healthy ground towards that goal as well as in Morocco where a democratic North Africa will help the monarchy there to work towards full parliament accountability. I personally believe that the monarchies can survive the winds of change and very much so can be a great stabilizer in their upcoming fledging democracy. At some point those monarchies will resemble the one in England with a little more authority.
PS: For more relevant information check my previous article.

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