Mubarak of Egypt... by Jamil Shawwa

While President Mubarak of Egypt is in Germany recovering- as the media stated- from a gallbladder operation, the Egyptian people have never been in a state of anticipation for a new leadership the way they are right now. Mr. Mubarak has been in power since October 1981 when he succeeded the late president Anwar al-Sadat who was assassinated in a military parade in that year marking the 1973 war between Israel and Egypt. President Sadat is the one that started the peace process in the Middle East when he went to Israel in 1977 and couple of years later signed a peace treaty that resulted in Israel's withdrawal from Sinai that Israel gained after winning the 1967 six days war. President Mubarak is aging; he is over 82 years old with no apparent successor except for his son that almost all media considers either as the person that will inherit the power after his father's pass or in his father's life if Mubarak does not seek another term in 2011. President Mubarak is a shrewd and savvy politician. He helped and is helping to transform the Arab world in the direction of peace with Israel and has maintained his country's focus on its internal affairs trying to elevate his people standard of living, while making sure that the country is secure from within. His main challenge has been the strong Muslim Brotherhood organization that has been a household name in Egypt long before the military coup that toppled the monarchy in 1952 and established the military as the safe guard of modern, and to certain extend secular Egypt. President Mubarak came from the military, before Sadat appointed him as vice president in 1975; he was the top general in the Air Force and head the Egyptian air force during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. All indications show that if free elections were held in Egypt that the Muslim Brotherhood would control the parliament. Egypt is in sense like Turkey where the military is the guardian of the secular democracy even if a religious party governs. I personally not sure that Gamal Mubarak- the projected successor to his father- is ready to govern Egypt. One thing I am sure about President Mubarak is that he does not and will not let emotions run the show; he will not allow his son to govern unless there is some sort of a coalition within Egypt including the Muslim Brotherhood organization and the army that will allow the son to have a smooth transition besides making sure that the son is capable in leading such a country in the size and the status of Egypt. Egypt also as a regional power coordinates closely with The United States and will not act alone in the matter of whom will be the next president of Egypt. Egypt in my opinion is at a cross road, it is losing it's status and power in the Middle East to the new comers, the Muslim Sunni power lead by Turkey and the Muslim Shiite power lead by Iran. Both countries have much more influence in the Arab affairs than Egypt or Saudi Arabia. President Mubarak style in appointing persons to power has been known to be a thorough one. I noticed that style when he brought a retired general to succeed the very popular late minister of defense Field Marshal Abu-Ghazalah and when he brought a retired diplomat to succeed the then popular foreign minister, now the head of the Arab league, Amr Mousa. Back to the son, Gamal, his main problem is that he never been tested in an election and I know the Egyptian logic behind not allowing him to nominate himself in parliamentary elections; if he succeeds the people will say because he is the son of the president and if he fails, the people will say that the regime failed him to prove that there is free elections. I wrote about Egypt many times here and I said once that the main problem in Egypt is that it does not trust itself; it is the inferiority complex that has it thinking-incorrectly- that it is less than other countries, that it is poor. Egypt is not poor in resources, human or natural but Egypt might be poor in the way it thinks sometimes. Having said that Egypt since it's modern leader Muhammad Ali Pasha- an Albanian appointed by Turkey during the ottoman empire to govern the country in the mid 19th century and whose family governed until the military kicked them out of power in 1952 as I indicated earlier- has been a pioneer in the Middle East in all sorts of education, arts, medicine, and various industrial expertise. The Egyptian people are capable in reestablishing a modern Egypt again. The main strength and advantage of Egypt reside in its peace with Israel. Through that peace, Egypt is a regional power with influence in both the Arab and the Muslim worlds and over the Palestinians especially in the Gaza Strip that it governed until 1967. If Egypt capitalizes on this influence, the peace with Israel, then it will continue to have influence and maybe match to a certain extend that of Iran and Turkey. Finally, it is difficult for me to predict who will be the next president of Egypt, but again, claiming that I know how Mubarak thinks, I will not be surprised if he chooses someone else besides his son. He has surprised people before as I said above and I do not see why not keep surprising. The Egyptian people are eager for a new and strong leadership; Mubarak is aware of this fact.