*When the Lion Roars; Meowwwww...... by Jamil Shawwa

Bashar AL-Assad did not expect that life-changing phone call in the middle of a London cold night in 1994 telling him that a plane is in its way to bring him back to Syria at once. His older brother, Basil, has just had a fatal accident driving his ultra modified Porsche, some say Mercedes, on a mountain road in the fogy surroundings of the capital Damascus. It was a destiny he did not want and did not prepare for. All he wanted to be is an eye doctor. He is in love with the British born, originally Syrian, Queen’s and King’s Colleges graduate Asma Al-Akhras, from the majority Muslim Sunnis of Syria. Now the doctor is being groomed to rule the ever-tricky politics and country of Syria. The clan is calling, the Alawis, the rulers of Syria since 1970. His father- Hafiz Al-Assad- ruled Syria with an iron fist, some say that he did not have other choices; he was like Stalin in the Soviet Union. In 1982, the Muslim Brotherhood took over the Syrian city of Hama, Hafiz Al-Assad did not hesitate, surrounded the city and ordered the military to uproot the rebellion, thousands were killed; estimated at 20,000, but the clan survived. In Syria, the loyalty is to the system, to the Alawis, if you do a mistake in Syria and you are in high office or place- you do not resign, you commit suicide or being invited to commit a suicide. This is the Alawis style in covering up for the family and the clan. In 1967, three Arab countries stupidly waged a war against Israel, they lost, and Syria lost the Golan Heights, Hafiz Al-Assad was the minster of defense. In 1970, he took over in a coup d’état, removed a weak and an idiot president, from an elite Syrian Sunni family, Al-Atassi, and declared a new era in Syria. He led what he called a Corrective Movement, correct what, until now, nobody knows, but him. In 1975 under an Arab cover and the approval of both Israel and the United States, he entered Lebanon to stop a crazy civil war, became an occupier and stayed there until 2005 when the US ordered him- Bashar, the son- to leave at once following the assassination of the Lebanese Muslim Sunni leader and former prime minster, Al Hariri. Bashar Al-Assad became president in 2000 following the passing of his father and was immediately confronted in 2001 with the terrorists’ attacks on America and the Bush doctrine, which is either with us or against us. In 2003, his archenemy, yet partner, in the Baath fascist party, Saddam Hussein was removed from power, and Al-Assad became alone in the Baath system. Al-Baath party is a party that covers itself with Pan-Arab slogans, but in fact, it is a party that preaches secret rituals of how few can rule the many through oppression and manipulation of course, otherwise, if done democratically; then it is no problem at all for a minority to rule a majority. That party was founded by a Christian Syrian by the name of Michel Aflaq. Again, the party and the system are based on the Mafia style of justice and brutality and on the Mafia style that is all in the family and for the family and by the family. Al-Assad the father played his cards very well, and managed the cold war era but got lost when the Soviet Union collapsed, but again he regained the importance through managed and calculated alliances with the so called forces of extremism in the Middle East, and by being available to manipulate the politics in Lebanon, a country that money buys loyalty and a country where also the clan comes first and the country comes fourth. During the Iraqi-Iranian war of the 1980s, he aligned himself with the Iranians, both are minorities in the midst of the Arab Sunni countries, both are from the Shiite sect and both until now have all the interest to be together. Accordingly, his participation in the Kuwait liberation was very understandable, he did not do it for Kuwait but against Iraq and the need to share and participate in the US efforts as needed. Following that liberation war, there was the first peace conference, Al-Assad attended, with Israel, representatives of the Palestinians, Egypt and Jordan. He later on allowed his loyal Sunni foreign minister, later vice president Farouk al-Sharaa to meet the Israeli prime minister at the time Ehud Barak in Washington under the supervision of President Clinton. The Golan Heights is a beautiful landscape that is less than 30 miles away from the Syrian capital. Israel is there and can see the capital whenever needed, and Al-Assad knows that of course. He wants the Golan back, eventually he will get it but only through peace, and Al-Assad knows that too. It is a regime that is based on the need to do basis. In 2005, I wrote that Syria’s Baath is in its way out; its logic, verbiages and statements prey on the emotions of the masses, the disillusioned, the deceived, the naive, for the rest, it has no substance or respect and far away from anything that is democratic or normal. I mentioned then that the oppressive and manipulative pretentious ideology of the Baath could not make it survive or continue to exist. I forgot then that logic does not-always- go side by side with politics, and if Al Baath is gone from Iraq, it does not mean that it needs to go now from Syria. As for Al-Assad family, I think it will stay not sure for how long. As for Lebanon, Syria will never be allowed to go back again. Of course, anyone probably knows that Al-Assad does not dare to move a finger before getting the necessary regional and international approvals, which is good, and it means that he knows how to play the game of politics in The Middle East. Actually, the relations are really more of mutual interests rather than someone telling the other what to do. But if that someone or that somebody does not know what is best for them or is not willing to be pragmatic, flexible and be aware of the bigger picture and the regional formulas and interests, then that someone needs to go, and if it is the case, it would go now, and not tomorrow. Al-Assad is very aware of that formula and is happy with it.





*Assad is Lion in English.