Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, On Wednesday February 23rd, 2022 "formally and officially" launched an assault Against Ukraine, "initiated" an invasion that has been in the making for years but the momentum for Putin to invade did not present itself until that day in February 2022, a day Ukrainians and the world will not forget.
However, The United States and Ukraine provided Vladimir Putin the excuse, the cover, the pretext, the platform, the landscape to conquer nd invade "helpless, isolated" Ukraine.
By not providing, in writing as Putin demanded, or at least publicly saying that Ukraine is not to be in NATO, Vladimir Putin eager to escape mass protests against his growing authoritarian style, jumped on the opportunity, capitalized on this particular game of politics superpowers created, and invaded.
Those chances do not come so often, and if they do not come, you have to create them. And the latter what exactly superpowers do and good at, create conflicts and then resolve them overtime, sometimes over decades; who's counting. Not them.
Today's Only Superpowers: US, China, Russia, understand the importance of keeping the globe occupied by conflicts, not necessarily at all destructive conflicts, just conflicts where diplomacy can function, politics and politicians' work. Conflict is the politicians and superpowers bread and butter.
No matter how people look into this matter, Ukraine joining NATO, they will come to one conclusion: Provocative. Not needed. It's like Mexico joining a military alliance with Russia, allowing the Russians to deploy forces and weapons into the US backyard. The US will Not Accept. The US probably will do the same. The US will invade. It happened before and probably it will happen, as needed, again.
Why Putin chose this day- explained in part below- this moment, in February 2022 to demand Ukraine and the US say no to Ukraine joining NATO, otherwise Invasion, which took place following months of Biden-Putin bickering, back and forth calls, meetings and conferences, multiple meetings in Moscow, Washington and Europe with various leaders, representatives and operatives from all sides.
The Bottom Line: NATO did not need, nor it does need, nor it will ever need to add Ukraine, and Ukraine should not have demanded to be part of NATO of which the reason has been to be protected from Russia. And here we are, just by dangling NATO for years, Ukraine never been officially considered by the North Atlantic Military organization and got a Russian invasion. And now, Ukraine as we will explain later must as it looks like make it clear at least if not aligned with Russia, it must be non-aligned with "anybody".
Putin "needed" an Invasion To absorb the growing resentment among Russians against his growing authoritarian rule and suppressing any kind of mass streets protests as well as confirming Russia's world stage power and presence decades after the humiliating fall of the Soviet Union.
China needed something, Ukraine invasion will do, to distract attention from its terrifying human rights records, especially against Muslims in China. The Chinese needed a distraction from the attention Hong Kong is getting because of how China, slowly, step by step exerts control, erodes freedoms, in the "capitalist island" that is supposed to be an oasis of freedom and business; the Chinese cannot afford have about 1.5 billion Chinese looking at Hong Kong's freedom and say why not us. Moreover, China needed a distraction from pandemic, and and how people, scientists, entities are looking at the origins of the pandemic and some directly blaming the Chinese of "doctoring" The global disease.
The United States needed a "case" to make for the importance of NATO after Donald Trump who himself launched the January 6, 2021, attacks on his own country and people, repeatedly during his twisted and corrupt presidency, belittled NATO, its relevance, its size, its cost, it's importance to keep peace in Europe and act as the only solid military deterrence around the world. The only global military alliance in the world. In addition, Biden wants to show minority of Americans who still blindly follow Donald Trump and his big lies the price of freedom, how lucky we are here in America to live under the rule of law, due process and all the other "freedom" we enjoy. Now, this might work, might erode the popularity among Republicans for Donald Trump. Might help to get Republicans back to their "senses", to get America back on track, back to "normal" opr even better.
Biden also made an important point since becoming President which is the world is witnessing two entities "fighting" each other: Democracy led by the United States and Tyranny led by China and Russia where dictators "want" to believe and make you, the people, believe that in order to get things done and "legally" passed, dictators must rule, tyrants according to them, get things passed quicker, can prevail; dictators don't wait for parliaments, Congress, to pass things, to haggle, especially in times of crisis, the Chinese made their point clear during the pandemic when they almost immediately shutdown huge portions of their country very quickly without regard to anything, including humans, to fight the global disease. Trump tried deception here when he asked deceived devotees to kill American democracy, basically, to overturn legitimate elections, when he asked elected officials, to "find him votes" to win.
But while Biden is correct about that fight, Democracies function when countries have strong elected leaders who are willing and have the guts to mobilize their countries to fight emergencies and offer viable, quick, fixes and solutions.
Again, just a friendly reminder, Superpowers today in the order of importance and strength are: United States, China and Russia; the rest of the world are either allies, partners, followers, or just on the side spectators.
Also, again, in order for politics, diplomacy and wars by proxy to work and survive, conflicts, according to superpowers, must exist around the globe. "Managed wars" are superpowers preferred tool to ensure alliance strength, results achieved. Basically, the US, Russia and China act as adversaries while in fact allies in creating, managing, and defusing conflicts. They will never admit to that "terrifying" fact.
When it comes to military superiority, China is second to the United States, but does not act upon military strength, China's role, per process and agreement, is global economic strength and influence, to showcase economic success and its pinpointed role in keeping North Korea, Taiwan, open for conflict and diplomacy. The Chinese do engage as needed and almost always has a say in the club of the elite three.
When global, across borders conflicts arise, or solutions need to take place. The role in the Ukraine crisis, for example, for the Chinese has been and is the passive yet involved partner. AP Friday February 25, 2022, and couple of days into the Russian Ukraine invasion, reported that Chinese Xi Jinping said that Vladimir Putin told him he is ready to end conflict if the Ukrainians accept non-allied status; basically, dropping the demand to join NATO which was the pretext for the Russians to invade Wednesday February 23rd, 2022.
Russia on the other hand has been the active "US military partner" since the end of the World War II, US and Russia, the Soviet Union before the big fall, partnered in every military confit on earth sometimes directly in a show of force but not actual confrontation like the Cuba missiles crisis in the early 1960s or through wars in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America.
World Powers will be out of business if conflicts do not exist; so, the scenario was so clear, the sequence of events was clear, it is exactly and without exaggeration a scripted conflict, a managed war and conflict and a a calculated adventure: Putin invades, we put sanctions, and then the rest of the story as it will unfold sooner or later. As for Ukraine, the soliton was easy, to be a non-aligned nation, could have been like Switzerland, but it went along with the game. It is what it is.
At the end of the day, and there will be an end to Ukraine invasion day, US, China and Russia will emerge winners, and Ukraine, all things considered, will lose for now.
However, there is something called "people power", No, it's not a joke. People power is the ability of thousands and even millions to gather, protest, demand things to change. Even in democracies, people see the need to go to the streets to demand change, anything they do not like and want to change immediately; people with all the social media around us, and things change in split second, have no more patience to wait for elections to change things. Boring, for them, to wait two or four years to elect someone and see if that someone can implement what they like and work with others in the same body, Congress, Parliament, to get votes necessary to pass things. Boring. People want change now.
So, when dust settles, US, China and Russia, will evaluate this "live- fire exercise", Ukraine invasion, as they did through every other "live-fire exercise", since 1945 and until now, where NATO mobilized forces after Russia invaded, and China observed and helped from the sideline and see how other conflicts they might create will look like, learn lessons and move on. The unfortunate thing about all this is people, ordinary humans suffer.
Click On Links: Joe Biden Meets Vladimir Putin In Geneva
Wink, Wink, No Worries, Joe, Vladimir Knows The Code
The Spokesman: Russia Ukraine Invasion "Official Spokesman" Joe Biden Says Vladimir Putin Made Up His Mind, Will Invade Ukraine
Ukraine And Nato:
And:
And:
Two Hours Over Ukraine; Biden-Putin "Dramatic Call" Meant To Save Or Lose Ukraine?
And:
And:
And:
And:
And:
And:
And:
US, China, Russia: The Big Picture: Politics And Human Rights
Biden And America And The World:
Trump January 6 2021 Rebellion Against The Unidet States:
America's Longest Day: Trump January 6 2021 Revenge and Terror
And: July 16 2018: Trump And Vladimir Putin
Trump: Elevate Vladimir Putin And Start A Cold War
No comments :
Post a Comment