Jamil Shawwa's Wire will focus on analyzing the news and the news behind the news, from all over the world and on any topic. Politics, peace, democracy and human rights will always be the headlines. Arts, books, human relations and human dimensions will also be present. The site is positioned to be a bridge that connects events and people. Objectivity, though in the eyes of the beholder, will always be paramount.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, On Wednesday February 23rd, 2022 "formally and officially" launched an assault Against Ukraine, "initiated" an invasion that has been in the making for years but the momentum for Putin to invade did not present itself until that day in February 2022, a day Ukrainians and the world will not forget.
However, The United States and Ukraine provided Vladimir Putin the excuse, the cover, the pretext, the platform, the landscape to conquer nd invade "helpless, isolated" Ukraine.
By not providing, in writing as Putin demanded, or at least publicly saying that Ukraine is not to be in NATO, Vladimir Putin eager to escape mass protests against his growing authoritarian style, jumped on the opportunity, capitalized on this particular game of politics superpowers created, and invaded.
Those chances do not come so often, and if they do not come, you have to create them. And the latter what exactly superpowers do and good at, create conflicts and then resolve them overtime, sometimes over decades; who's counting. Not them.
Today's Only Superpowers: US, China, Russia, understand the importance of keeping the globe occupied by conflicts, not necessarily at all destructive conflicts, just conflicts where diplomacy can function, politics and politicians' work. Conflict is the politicians and superpowers bread and butter.
No matter how people look into this matter, Ukraine joining NATO, they will come to one conclusion: Provocative. Not needed. It's like Mexico joining a military alliance with Russia, allowing the Russians to deploy forces and weapons into the US backyard. The US will Not Accept. The US probably will do the same. The US will invade. It happened before and probably it will happen, as needed, again.
Why Putin chose this day- explained in part below- this moment, in February 2022 to demand Ukraine and the US say no to Ukraine joining NATO, otherwise Invasion, which took place following months of Biden-Putin bickering, back and forth calls, meetings and conferences, multiple meetings in Moscow, Washington and Europe with various leaders, representatives and operatives from all sides.
The Bottom Line: NATO did not need, nor it does need, nor it will ever need to add Ukraine, and Ukraine should not have demanded to be part of NATO of which the reason has been to be protected from Russia. And here we are, just by dangling NATO for years, Ukraine never been officially considered by the North Atlantic Military organization and got a Russian invasion. And now, Ukraine as we will explain later must as it looks like make it clear at least if not aligned with Russia, it must be non-aligned with "anybody".
Putin "needed" an Invasion To absorb the growing resentment among Russians against his growing authoritarian rule and suppressing any kind of mass streets protests as well as confirming Russia's world stage power and presence decades after the humiliating fall of the Soviet Union.
China needed something, Ukraine invasion will do, to distract attention from its terrifying human rights records, especially against Muslims in China. The Chinese needed a distraction from the attention Hong Kong is getting because of how China, slowly, step by step exerts control, erodes freedoms, in the "capitalist island" that is supposed to be an oasis of freedom and business; the Chinese cannot afford have about 1.5 billion Chinese looking at Hong Kong's freedom and say why not us. Moreover, China needed a distraction from pandemic, and and how people, scientists, entities are looking at the origins of the pandemic and some directly blaming the Chinese of "doctoring" The global disease.
The United States needed a "case" to make for the importance of NATO after Donald Trump who himself launched the January 6, 2021, attacks on his own country and people, repeatedly during his twisted and corrupt presidency, belittled NATO, its relevance, its size, its cost, it's importance to keep peace in Europe and act as the only solid military deterrence around the world. The only global military alliance in the world. In addition, Biden wants to show minority of Americans who still blindly follow Donald Trump and his big lies the price of freedom, how lucky we are here in America to live under the rule of law, due process and all the other "freedom" we enjoy. Now, this might work, might erode the popularity among Republicans for Donald Trump. Might help to get Republicans back to their "senses", to get America back on track, back to "normal" opr even better.
Biden also made an important point since becoming President which is the world is witnessing two entities "fighting" each other: Democracy led by the United States and Tyranny led by China and Russia where dictators "want" to believe and make you, the people, believe that in order to get things done and "legally" passed, dictators must rule, tyrants according to them, get things passed quicker, can prevail; dictators don't wait for parliaments, Congress, to pass things, to haggle, especially in times of crisis, the Chinese made their point clear during the pandemic when they almost immediately shutdown huge portions of their country very quickly without regard to anything, including humans, to fight the global disease. Trump tried deception here when he asked deceived devotees to kill American democracy, basically, to overturn legitimate elections, when he asked elected officials, to "find him votes" to win.
But while Biden is correct about that fight, Democracies function when countries have strong elected leaders who are willing and have the guts to mobilize their countries to fight emergencies and offer viable, quick, fixes and solutions.
Again, just a friendly reminder, Superpowers today in the order of importance and strength are: United States, China and Russia; the rest of the world are either allies, partners, followers, or just on the side spectators.
Also, again, in order for politics, diplomacy and wars by proxy to work and survive, conflicts, according to superpowers, must exist around the globe. "Managed wars" are superpowers preferred tool to ensure alliance strength, results achieved. Basically, the US, Russia and China act as adversaries while in fact allies in creating, managing, and defusing conflicts. They will never admit to that "terrifying" fact.
When it comes to military superiority, China is second to the United States, but does not act upon military strength, China's role, per process and agreement, is global economic strength and influence, to showcase economic success and its pinpointed role in keeping North Korea, Taiwan, open for conflict and diplomacy. The Chinese do engage as needed and almost always has a say in the club of the elite three.
When global, across borders conflicts arise, or solutions need to take place. The role in the Ukraine crisis, for example, for the Chinese has been and is the passive yet involved partner. AP Friday February 25, 2022, and couple of days into the Russian Ukraine invasion, reported that Chinese Xi Jinping said that Vladimir Putin told him he is ready to end conflict if the Ukrainians accept non-allied status; basically, dropping the demand to join NATO which was the pretext for the Russians to invade Wednesday February 23rd, 2022.
Russia on the other hand has been the active "US military partner" since the end of the World War II, US and Russia, the Soviet Union before the big fall, partnered in every military confit on earth sometimes directly in a show of force but not actual confrontation like the Cuba missiles crisis in the early 1960s or through wars in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America.
World Powers will be out of business if conflicts do not exist; so, the scenario was so clear, the sequence of events was clear, it is exactly and without exaggeration a scripted conflict, a managed war and conflict and a a calculated adventure: Putin invades, we put sanctions, and then the rest of the story as it will unfold sooner or later. As for Ukraine, the soliton was easy, to be a non-aligned nation, could have been like Switzerland, but it went along with the game. It is what it is.
At the end of the day, and there will be an end to Ukraine invasion day, US, China and Russia will emerge winners, and Ukraine, all things considered, will lose for now.
However, there is something called "people power", No, it's not a joke. People power is the ability of thousands and even millions to gather, protest, demand things to change. Even in democracies, people see the need to go to the streets to demand change, anything they do not like and want to change immediately; people with all the social media around us, and things change in split second, have no more patience to wait for elections to change things. Boring, for them, to wait two or four years to elect someone and see if that someone can implement what they like and work with others in the same body, Congress, Parliament, to get votes necessary to pass things. Boring. People want change now.
So, when dust settles, US, China and Russia, will evaluate this "live- fire exercise", Ukraine invasion, as they did through every other "live-fire exercise", since 1945 and until now, where NATO mobilized forces after Russia invaded, and China observed and helped from the sideline and see how other conflicts they might create will look like, learn lessons and move on. The unfortunate thing about all this is people, ordinary humans suffer.
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America's Longest Day: Trump January 6 2021 Revenge and Terror
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Never happened in the history of our country and probably not in any other country, and for sure not in any democratic country, that a sitting President ordered, incited, aided and abetted a mob of extremists called base and fanatic supporters who looked and acted like a bunch of thugs, imbeciles, domestic terrorists eager to blindly follow "the leader" trail of lies and deception and violently attack one of their government and country most prolific institutions and symbols of democracy, the Parliament, or in our case here in America, the January 6 2021 attack on the Capital-Congress. Trump was acting as Trump.
Trump on January 6 2021 in a fiery speech in front of the White House, while Congress in supposedly routine session to certify Presidential elections electoral college results, flagrantly ordered his loyal mob gathered in Washington DC to march and attack Congress. It was his ultimate revenge for losing a fair and otherwise normal elections. Trump lied to them and said he will be joining in the attack; the mob believed "the leader" and marched forward and of course Trump was nowhere to be found. Trump was acting as Trump. Trump on that same day acted like Trump, the saboteur, the provocateur, the populist demagogue but this time his words of incitement rallied angry mob loyal to him and following to the letter his request to march on the Capital and forcefully disrupt otherwise a routine session required by the constitution. That day was anything but routine or normal. It was an attack on America, it was an attempted coup. It was a Treasonous act.
Trump ordered his loyal ready to act domestic terrorists to attack America's Capital while his own VP Mike Pence presiding over the tallying of the electoral college vote; Trump ordered the attack while his own Republican party was there seated and ready to challenge the fair and square presidential elections; basically Trump - by now should not be a surprise to anyone- ordered the attack causing mayhem and death to many and risking the lives of his own blindly loyal VP, Congresswomen, Congressmen and Senators. Trump was acting as Trump.
What Mattered and matters to Trump and What has always Mattered to Trump is the image not the substance; who cares in Trump's eyes about the substance as long as the image is intact. Trump revenge the way it was planned and carried out could not have been predicted, but it should have been easily predicted based on record, to even those who knew him best; it was the culmination of a fraudulent personality and character he cultivated over the years using fake but popular imageries like the apprentice (You're Fired) and Mafia tactics he lived with
growing in New York City. But that day and that attack, again, should have been prepared for by all types of security forces. It was Not. Even worse, some Capitol police as news reveals and footages showed are and were accomplices; Capitol police was ordered not to use force, National Guard was ordered not to respond on time. But still there were heroes among the capital police who risked their lives defending America in the face of relentless mob.
For Trump the image what matters not at all the substance that is supposed at least most of the time to go with the image-among normal people or politicians of course. So the image Trump wanted to last after the huge November 3rd rebuke and defeat was revenge, revenge and nothing but revenge. Trump wanted to be remembered by his thugs occupying and destroying Congress. That moment was in Trump mind his imaginary inauguration. Trump was acting as Trump.
A revenge on America and its democracy; Trump knows of course he lost a fair and square elections but again what matters the most to him is not to lose his fake, deceptive, lying image he methodically cultivated over the years which was highlighted by lying about Obama’s birthplace of which has become the bedrock of his ambition to become president and the bedrock of a defiant and dangerous base of which we should now call deadly cult not just a Politician base.
Trump proved on "calculation" day he is as dangerous for America as 09/11/2001 terrorists, and same as Jim Jones who ordered cult, his followers, to die; the images of his domestic terrorists climbing the walls of Congress, breaking doors and windows, attacking and chasing scared police and seating flags of deception and despair bearing his name and images and what he "stands for" if any and where Joe Biden is to take oath of office noon January 20 2021; that is the image he wanted his base and America to remember him for, nothing else, not since losing reelection.
The Message was a blatant coup attempt that was destined to fail and Trump Message was: If you do not seat me President for a second term, America, regardless of fair elections results, I will forcefully seat myself, Even if only for few seconds and hours, even if not real, it does not matter; Trump has been fake all along and even so in his mind, few more hours would not make any difference.
The point Trump wanted to make is to showcase his base with his flags and name in the same place where Joe Biden is to take oath of office on January 20, 2021; there was no other way for Trump to be there on January 20th 2021 except and only if he directed his mob to storm, occupy Congress and plant his flags instead of the American flag and rival Joe Biden on the West Wing of the capital where presidents take oath of office.
Trump will be impeached again and will have his trial in the senate after leaving office on January 20 2021 and will be removed postmortem and will be banned from ever again running for office. But the damage has been done. However, it will be fixed and America from such horrific experience will grow stronger. It took a Trump for us to wake up and not take our democracy for granted and not to believe and then worse, elect, every dangerous demagogue looking to substitute their own inferiority complexes with packs of lies and mayhem.
Trump today, Tuesday January 12 2021, said he takes No Responsibilities for the January 6th 2021 Rebellion he incited and called for and told his base to do and said he'll be there with them. Trump acted as Trump.
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In the picture, rioters supporting Donald Trump storm the Capital in washington DC, Wednesday January 6,2021. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
On Friday the 2nd of October 2020, Donald Trump who happens to be the current President of The United States during its darkest hour and I say darkest hour not because of pandemic but because of Trump handling or actually mishandling the pandemic was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center infected with the same pandemic of which for months he joked about, laughed at, exposed others to and downplayed- what a tragedy. His wife Melania suffered the same but the news and selfish, obnoxious Trump are not updating her pandemic and sorrow condition.
Trump who for months on purpose -as he told Bob Woodward on tape-downplayed the worst "event" that hit home in generations, the worst pandemic in decades, who kept telling Americans "not to worry", not to wear masks, not to stop socializing, do not test for disease.
On Sunday the 4th of October 2020, while still infected and contagious and still being treated at Walter Reed, demagogue Trump exposing everybody including the Secret Service decided to take a "drive" to "greet" his "twisted ' supporters waiting outside the hospital- no regard to human life or human dignity whatsoever, nothing less can describe such gross, selfish, theatrical, pretentious behaviour.
On Monday the 5th of October 2020, Donald Trump Still Pandemic Infected, Infectious and Contagious leaves Walter Reed Hospital, addresses mostly "his base" and Dismayed America telling them not to be Afraid and now he "gets it", talking about the pandemic.
Basically, Trump telling Americans-while getting the best around the clock medical treatment while still sick- so what to get infected regardless if you die or not, regardless if you have medical treatment or not, just go about with your lives as if no pandemic which killed over 210,000 Americans and infected millions exists or ever existed- so dangerous behaviour and the worst part there are still "humans" supposedly with some brains believe Trump, follow Dr. Evil medical advices to the T including but not limited to his "advice" to drink bleach to fight pandemic. During his terrible debate performance with Joe Biden, his Democratic challenger for President, Trump said he was talking sarcastically about the bleach thing; Trump was not and people followed his stupidity, drank bleach and died.
Based on facts and events and only facts and events on how Trump deliberately ignored Science, ridiculed Medicine, malicelely disrgarded comptenent medcial advices, obnoxiously downplayed the grave danger of the pandemic, consistently kept telling Americans Masks are not important or no need to wear masks-unless you choose to- or it's up to individuals to wear masks- this pandemic should be called Trump pandemic, anytime Americans recall those dark days, darkest hour, a pandemic that killed over 210,000 Americans as of writing these lines, should align it with the Trump presidency.
Trump continues to tweet Fake news comparing pandemic to Flu; in short Trump continues to be Trump- no surprise there, we have established this fact over years and generations. But again the problem is Trump is the president now, his style proved to be no longer just entertaining, not funny, but deadly and here is the rub, what more harm can Trump do to convince a majority of Americans not to grant him a second term.
Almost every aspect of his presidency in particular pandemic handling has been disastrous to say the least, so why re-elect a disaster.
Again and again, demagogue, populist leaders thrive when knowing their supporters love it when they lie to them.
In America, regardless of pandemic, there has been a population of voters who will vote along party lines, but the majority do not; the majority of "disloyal" voters- to borrow Michael Cohen's book title to make a point here- will vote for whoever relate to their day to day lives; and based on that assumption, Trump will not be reelected. The 2016 surprise will not be repeated for the simple reason: Americans witnessing daily how he has been divisive and how he has been handling the deadly pandemic; it cannot get any worse and the time is ripe based on Trump record only for Trump to retire at his Florida estate. So last but not least the pandemic is not a China pandemic, or kung fu pandemic as Trump and cronies like to say to shift the focus but a Trump pandemic that killed and still killing over 210, 000 Americans.
In the picture, President Donald Trump stands on the Blue Room Balcony upon returning to the White House Monday, Oct. 5, 2020, in Washington, after leaving Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, in Bethesda, Maryland. Trump announced he has pandemic on Oct. 2. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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| (Undated photo shows President Donald Trump).(Kyodo via AP Images) |
